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Imagine having a strong cyclone heading your way and being unprepared because the warnings came too late and did not provide enough information about the storm's intensity. Imagine you hear the warnings but don't know how to interpret them. Think about the cyclone's winds literally blowing your house away. Imagine holding on to a tree for dear life, for many hours in a storm, hoping the winds do not blow you away like they did your house. Luckily, you survived the storm, but you're now homeless and can't find your family members. These are just some real-life scenarios which have become synonymous with 2008's Cyclone Nargis. 

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What was the total value of the damages caused by Cyclone Nargis in Myanmar?

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Cyclone Nargis case study

Cyclone Nargis was the first named storm of the 2008 cyclone season in the North Indian Ocean. It was one of the deadliest tropical cyclones ever recorded, and it has been compared to Hurricane Katrina in the United States. However, as you will go on to learn, it was far more deadly. Cyclone Nargis affected Myanmar (formally Burma) and resulted in the worst natural disaster in the country's history.

Myanmar's name was changed from Burma by the government in 1989. However, technically, this change only applies in English because the word Myanmar is just a more formal way of saying Burma.

Cyclone Nargis location

Cyclone Nargis formed as a depression on 27 April 2008 in the Bay of Bengal about 466 miles/750 km south-east of the city of Chennai (formerly Madras) in India. At first, the storm tracked to the northwest and was expected to make landfall in India. However, on May 1st, Nargis turned and began to track towards the northeast because of the presence of a mid-latitude trough towards its northwest.

On this new track, it was initially projected to hit either Bangladesh or the mountainous, north-western part of Myanmar. Instead, it headed more or less due east and made landfall along Myanmar's southern and eastern coasts. Cyclone Nargis dissipated on 3 May 2008 at the Myanmar/Thailand border. Figure 1 shows its track.

Cyclones in this part of the Indian Ocean typically track towards the northwest or north-north-west.

Cyclone Nargis facts

In the following sections, we will examine some facts about Cyclone Nargis.

Cyclone Nargis' strength and category

After its formation, Cyclone Nargis was upgraded to a category 1 cyclone (according to the Saffir-Simpson scale) on 28 April. It further strengthened into a category 2 cyclone on 29 April. Later that same day, Nargis lost some strength and was downgraded to storm status. On 1 May, along with the storm's sudden turn towards the east, there was also a rapid intensification. By 1 May, the storm was a category 4 with maximum sustained winds of 135 mph/217 km/hr. It made landfall in Myanmar at this strength and battered the country until 3 May.

Cyclone Nargis - affected areas

Cyclone Nargis hit the low-lying Irrawaddy Delta, including south Yangon. Yangon is Myanmar's largest city and its leading commercial centre. The fact that the cyclone largely stayed along the coast prevented it from weakening as it made its way across southern Myanmar (the storm was still being fuelled by the warm waters). It affected about 50 townships, and the areas that experienced the worst impact were Labutta, Bogale, Pyapon, Dedaye and Kyaiklat. Figure 2 shows the areas which were affected by the storm.

Cyclone Nargis impacts

The combination of heavy rains, high winds and the storm surge resulted in Cyclone Nargis devastating southern Myanmar and, as stated previously, becoming the worst natural disaster in the country's history. In fact, Nargis is often regarded as one of the worst natural disasters globally since 1970! A large proportion of the destruction resulted from its storm surge, estimated to have been over 16ft/5m in some areas and affected places up to 25 miles/40 km inland.

The impacts of the storm were amplified by the fact Myanmar already has relatively high levels of environmental degradation, including deforestation of mangroves, over-exploitation of natural resources and soil erosion.

Cyclone Nargis' economic impacts

Overall, it was estimated that Cyclone Nargis caused about USD $10 billion in damages, the equivalent of £8.3 billion today (July 2022). Approximately 65% of the rice paddy fields were destroyed (figure 3), which caused food security problems not only within the country but also in Sri Lanka and Bangladesh, both of which depend on rice exports from Myanmar to feed their populations. The shrimping industry was also significantly damaged.

Rice is vital in Myanmar. When the country was part of the British Empire, it was known as the "rice bowl" because of how well rice grew in the Irrawaddy Delta. Rice accounts for about 66% of the daily caloric intake of the country's population and is also exported to other countries.

Cyclone Nargis' environmental impacts

Cyclone Nargis destroyed approximately 38,000 hectares (93,000 acres) of mangroves and other tree crops. There was contamination of surface and groundwater supplies, and 43% of the freshwater ponds were damaged. Additionally, the storm caused sedimentation in rivers, salination and erosion of agricultural land.

Cyclone Nargis' social impacts

The storm severely impacted about 1.5 million people. In the aftermath of the cyclone, the water supply contamination caused a potable water shortage. There were also food shortages and no electricity or phone lines as the storm had downed many utility poles. Furthermore, 95% of the buildings, including homes, in the delta were destroyed, while 75% of the health facilities in affected areas were either significantly damaged or destroyed. The damage to homes left many persons homeless. The storm killed numerous animals, and there was an increase in some diseases because of stagnant water and improper sanitation (figure 4).

Cyclone Nargis death

The death toll attributed to Cyclone Nargis is approximately 140,000, with many others still reported as missing since their bodies have never been recovered. This makes Nargis one of the top 10 deadliest tropical cyclones in history.

The deadliest tropical cyclone ever recorded was the Great Bhola Cyclone, which hit Bangladesh in November 1970. The death toll from this storm is estimated to be between 300,000 and 500,000.

Reasons for the high death toll

The high death toll was a result of a combination of factors. The storm made landfall in the most heavily populated part of the country. Myanmar did not have a reliable storm warning system in place, and although India did send warnings about its approach, many received the warnings too late. They did not understand that they should have evacuated. The storm surge, which was responsible for a vast proportion of the deaths, easily made its way inland as many of the mangroves, which could have provided some protection, had been destroyed. Many of the dwellings in the region were also poorly constructed and, therefore, easily washed away.

Cyclone Nargis aftermath

In the aftermath of Cyclone Nargis, the government of Myanmar initially barred international aid from entering the country. This may likely have contributed to increasing the death toll. When aid was finally allowed to enter about a week later, it was limited by the government to food, medicine, basic medical supplies and financial aid. At this time, no foreign aid workers were allowed to enter the country. After weeks of negotiations, vast amounts of foreign relief and workers were granted access towards the end of May. Table 1 outlines some (not all!) of the aid provided to Myanmar in the aftermath of Nargis.

Table 1: Aid provided to Myanmar after Cyclone Nargis

Cyclone Nargis - Key takeaways

• Cyclone Nargis was a category 4 storm which hit southern Myanmar on 2 May and 3 May 2008.
• It affected about 50 townships in the Irrawaddy Delta.
• Cyclone Nargis caused the worst natural disaster in Myanmar's history, killing 140,000 and resulting in about USD $10 billion in damages (the equivalent of £8.3 billion in today's money - July 2022)
• In its aftermath, the government initially did not allow international aid into the country.
• When it was eventually allowed, international aid was sent by many countries and organizations.
• Fig. 2 : Areas affected by Cyclone Nargis (https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Myanmar_Disaster_Topography.png) by Robert A Rohde (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/User:Dragons_flight) licensed by Commons: GNU Free Documentation License (https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Commons:GNU_Free_Documentation_License,_version_1.2)
• Fig. 3: Flood rice paddies (https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Cyclone_Nargis_(10690721524).jpg) by Neryl Lewis, RRT (https://www.flickr.com/photos/dfataustralianaid/10690721524/) licensed by CC BY 2.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/)
• Fig. 4: Standing water after Cyclone Nargis (https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Cyclone_Nargis_(10690956103).jpg) by Neryl Lewis RRT (https://www.flickr.com/photos/dfataustralianaid/10690956103/) licensed by CC BY 2.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/deed.en)
• Fig. 5: Australian aid after Cyclone Nargis (https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Australian_aid_being_unloaded_in_Myanmar_in_response_to_Cyclone_Nargis,_2008._Photo-_AusAID_(10673729926).jpg) by Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (https://www.flickr.com/photos/dfataustralianaid/10673729926/in/album-72157637431373955/) licensed by CC BY 2.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/)

Flashcards in Cyclone Nargis 6

True or False:

Cyclone Nargis made landfall in Myanmar as a category 1 storm.

Cyclone Nargis' storm surge affected areas up to 40 km/25 miles inland.

USD $18 billion

The government of Myanmar immediately allowed access to international aid after Cyclone Nargis.

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Frequently Asked Questions about Cyclone Nargis

Which countries did Cyclone Nargis affect? 

Cyclone Nargis affected Myanmar. 

How did cyclone Nargis affect Myanmar? 

Cyclone Nargis caused approximately USD $10 billion in damage. It destroyed Myanmar's rice and shrimping industry. It also destroyed buildings, mangroves and other crops, contaminated water sources, and downed utility lines. Many persons were left homeless, animals were killed, and there was a rise in some diseases.  

How many people did Cyclone Nargis kill?

Cyclone Nargis killed 140,000 people.

Why was Cyclone Nargis so deadly? 

Cyclone Nargis was so deadly because it hit the most highly populated areas of Myanmar, where the people were largely unprepared. The population of this area also largely lived in poorly constructed homes which were not protected due to mangrove destruction and therefore were easily washed away by the storm surge. 

How long did Cyclone Nargis last?

Cyclone Nargis formed on 27 April 2008 and dissipated on 3 May 2008. It affected Myanmar on 2 and 3 May 2008. 

Test your knowledge with multiple choice flashcards

True or False:Cyclone Nargis made landfall in Myanmar as a category 1 storm.

True or False:Cyclone Nargis' storm surge affected areas up to 40 km/25 miles inland.

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Learning from Cyclone Nargis: Investing in the Environment for Livelihoods and Disaster Risk Reduction - A Case Study

This case study analyses the root causes of environmental degradation in the Ayeyarwady Delta after Cyclone Nargis and illustrates the interrelationship between environmental management, livelihoods and disasters. Key lessons from Cyclone Nargis are drawn out, highlighting the importance of addressing disaster risks over the long term, through improved environmental governance and resource management and the development of more sustainable livelihoods.

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10 years after, Cyclone Nargis still holds lessons for Myanmar

Professor of the Practice, Tufts University

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Gregory Gottlieb does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

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When Cyclone Nargis struck Myanmar 10 years ago, 140,000 lives were lost and 800,000 were displaced. The category 4 storm slammed into Myanmar’s low-lying Irrawaddy Delta , an area that usually escapes major typhoons. High winds and a 12-foot storm surge devastated the area, affecting millions.

I was a senior humanitarian assistance officer at the United States Agency for International Development at the time. Myanmar, then under a military dictatorship, was clearly unprepared for a storm of this magnitude.

Not only did the country lack a weather radar network that could predict cyclones, it also had no early warning system, storm shelters or evacuation plans. Housing, built largely of bamboo and thatch, was hardly cyclone resistant .

In the 10 years since the storm, Myanmar has made significant progress on disaster preparedness. But the government’s relationship with international and local relief agencies remains fraught – potentially putting future lives at risk.

Unnecessary misery

I spent the immediate aftermath of Cyclone Nargis negotiating with the government to gain access for humanitarian organizations to access the country and provide emergency relief.

Myanmar, formerly known as Burma, was then largely a closed country run by the military. Battling many internal insurgencies over nearly 70 years, the military tended to spend money on security, undermining the growth of social programs. Disaster preparedness was extremely weak .

The security-obsessed Myanmar government made disaster recovery after Nargis infinitely harder than it needed to be because of resistance to international help, which was seen as a potential threat to internal security . The generals I worked with refused visas for international relief staff, delayed entry of ships carrying relief supplies and even arrested citizens for undertaking local relief efforts.

These delays left millions of people injured, hungry and homeless . More than 700,000 homes were fully or partially destroyed . Nearly 75 percent of health clinics were destroyed .

Two weeks later, under pressure from regional leaders, the U.N. secretary general, and critiques from the U.S. and other Western countries, the Association of South East Asian Nations, a regional governance body, brokered an agreement that allowed international organizations into the country to provide relief.

Numerous agencies came into the country, and several, such as Save the Children and World Vision, greatly expanded their programs and staff. It is estimated that more than 1.1 million received food assistance and other relief .

Government changes

A few years later, political change began to open Myanmar up to the outside world.

In 2010 a referendum allowed citizens to vote for their first elected leaders in two decades and eased tough restrictions on foreign access to the country.

This political opening also pushed the country to collaborate with neighboring countries and international partners on disaster preparedness. Myanmar worked with ASEAN on several regional storm risk-reduction programs , signed onto international agreements to boost its disaster resiliency and joined the Paris Agreement on Climate Change .

It also passed laws aimed at building national, state and local disaster response mechanisms, with the support of the U.S., Japan, the Myanmar Red Cross, the U.N. and other relief agencies .

Similar efforts had been shown to help neighboring Bangladesh greatly reduce its storm deaths in recent decades. In 1991, for example, approximately 135,000 people died in Cyclone 2b . By 2007, just 3,000 were killed in Cyclone Sidr , though it was one of the largest storms ever to hit Bangladesh.

Myanmar is also making an effort to replant coastal mangrove forests . Evidence shows that deforestation of this critical coastline ecosystem worsened the storm surge of Cyclone Nargis.

During Cyclone Nargis, many in the path of the storm doubted weather reports because of the unreliability of previous storm reporting. The country has now made dramatic improvements to its national weather forecasting and disaster warning systems , installing three new radar facilities and 30 new weather observation stations.

The new weather reports, which are broadcast regularly through radio and television, have evidently earned people’s trust . When severe weather is predicted, warnings will also be issued via newly installed loudspeaker systems.

The government also hopes to build 50 concrete shelters in cyclone-vulnerable Rakhine state and offer more training to government officials in “ resilience training ” – teaching them best practices in disaster management and social protection.

Rise of the smartphone

The most significant disaster mitigation development, however, has nothing to do with government legislation. It is the explosion of smartphones in the country.

In 2008, when I worked in Myanmar, only 3 percent of the population had mobile phones. By June 2017, about 90 percent of the country’s 54 million people had access to a phone with internet service .

Now, even the 85 percent of Myanmar citizens who live in rural areas will soon be able to receive storm warnings directly via a smartphone app .

Difficulties remain

While Myanmar deserves praise for learning from the Cyclone Nargis disaster, I fear that the government’s continued resistance to outside influence will undermine progress.

Even with the leadership of the elected leader Aung San Suu Kyi, who won a Nobel Peace Prize in 1991 for advocating democratic reforms, Myanmar remains something of a rogue state. Most notably, the country is accused of atrocity in its treatment of the Rohingya, a minority Muslim community from Rakhine state.

Thousands have reportedly been killed since August 2017 and many of their villages razed. Some 600,000 Rohingya are now refugees in Bangladesh.

Myanmar has consistently blocked the U.N. and international aid agencies from assisting Rohingya refugees . Just as it did in 2008, when I was negotiating with generals to get foreign aid workers into the country, the government still limits visas and operations for international nonprofit relief groups.

In my assessment, the government’s dual strategy – cooperating on disaster preparedness while obstructing humanitarian relief in conflict areas – still puts Burmese lives needlessly in danger.

By hindering relief organizations seeking to provide humanitarian relief to the Rohingya, Myanmar is creating confused and ineffective relationships with the same agencies that it will depend on after the inevitable next natural storm.

Myanmar has made great strides in disaster preparedness since Cyclone Nargis. But unless it builds more open and transparent relationships with international partners, it risks a repeat of another tragedy.

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• > Sustainable Development: Asia-Pacific Perspectives
• > Cyclone Nargis and disaster risk management in Myanmar

Book contents

• Sustainable Development: Asia-Pacific Perspectives
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• Environmental keystones: Remembering Dr Mostafa Kamal Tolba
• Remembering Dr Mostafa Kamal Tolba
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• Part I Sustainable Development: Theories and Practices
• Part II Sustainable Development: Challenges and Opportunities
• 17 Scientific responses in an era of global change
• 18 Government communication on transboundary haze: The nexus between public health and tourism
• 19 Biomass energy prospects: A promising fuel for sustainable development in Asia and the Pacific
• 20 Pathways to a more sustainable electricity sector in India
• 21 Gender equality and energy access: Barriers to maximizing development effectiveness in the SAARC region
• 22 The biosphere and the interactions between stratospheric ozone depletion and climate change
• 23 The political challenge of linking climate change and sustainable development policies: Risks and prospects
• 24 Social vulnerability to climate change in Cambodia, Lao PDR, and Vietnam
• 25 Sustainable development in Bangladesh: Bridging the SDGs and climate action
• 26 Sustainable development in Pakistan: Vulnerabilities and opportunities
• 27 Beyond protected areas: Biodiversity conservation and global change in Asia and the Pacific
• 28 Causes of land-use change and biodiversity loss in Monsoon Asia
• 29 Assessing linkages between land use and biodiversity: A case study from the Eastern Himalayas using low-cost, high-return survey technology
• 30 Where to invade next: Inaction on biological invasions threatens sustainability in a small island developing state of the tropical South Pacific
• 31 Did the Indian Ocean tsunami trigger a shift towards disaster risk reduction?
• 32 Cyclone Nargis and disaster risk management in Myanmar

32 - Cyclone Nargis and disaster risk management in Myanmar

from Part II - Sustainable Development: Challenges and Opportunities

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  23 December 2021

The devastating cyclone ‘Nargis’ struck the Myanmar coast on the evening of 2 May 2008. Prior to Nargis, no cyclone making landfall in Myanmar had ever been on the list of ‘deadliest tropical cyclones’ in the whole tropical region. Official figures reported that 84,500 people were killed and 53,800 went missing (). Nargis became the eighth-deadliest tropical cyclone in the world, in addition to leaving a huge impact on the social and economic sectors of the country, with an estimated cost of more than 11 trillion kyat (US$8,317,580) in damages.

The effect of climate change is evident when one looks at the case of Nargis, especially upon studying its track.found that the latitude of recurvature of Bay of Bengal storms in the pre-monsoon season had shifted southwards from the latitude of Bangladesh (>20° North) to the latitude of the Myanmar delta area (around 16° North). This latitudinal shift is clearly seen after the 1980s in the decadal average of 850 hPa winds. In addition, the decadal mean sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in the Bay of Bengal for the pre-monsoonal periods clearly show that they have changed from negative to positive, starting from 1980. Furthermore, a maximum positive SSTA centre is observed in the vicinity of Preparis Island, one of the Andaman Islands, from which most storms with a landfall on the Myanmar coast originate. These changes have had a significant impact on the region, as a result.

The high loss of human lives and property during Nargis was due to the high vulnerability of the delta areas associated with both climatic and non-climatic factors. This chapter discusses those factors so as to learn lessons, with a view to reducing the risks in similar disasters in the future. Disaster risk reduction and management will have significant implications for sustainable development in Myanmar.

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• Cyclone Nargis and disaster risk management in Myanmar
• By Tun Lwin , Swan Yee Tun Lwin
• Edited by Pak Sum Low
• Book: Sustainable Development: Asia-Pacific Perspectives
• Online publication: 23 December 2021
• Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/9780511977961.037

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• Cyclone Nargis was the deadliest cyclone to hit Asia since 1991, when 143,000 people perished in Banglesh from a landfalling cyclone. Cyclone Nargis is at least the second deadliest named cyclone ever recorded globally, behind Typhoon Nina (1975), which killed over 100,000 in China. Because the actual number of deaths is unknown, and over a million could have possibly lost their lives during the event, Cyclone Nargis may end up being the deadliest cyclone on record and also the third deadliest recorded natural disaster behind the Yellow River floods that affected China in 1887 and 1931 killing at least 1.9 million combined.
• Researchers now believe that Nargis’ 24-hour intensification from a weak Category 1 storm to a Category 4 cyclone was due to a pre-existing, warm ocean feature in the Bay of Bengal. Here, warm, upper ocean waters extended deeper than normal, and this abnormally deep layer of warm water increased the energy available to the cyclone [link to Section 2 content], fueling its growth by 300%. Similar features in the Gulf of Mexico were responsible for the rapid intensification of hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005.
• The Irrawaddy Delta is economically important for Myanmar, and its rich soil has allowed the country to become a major rice exporter. Making landfall during a critical harvest period, Nargis caused significant damage to the area’s winter rice crop. The UN’s Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) estimated that Nargis impacted 65% of the country's paddies. Although subsequent rain and flooding flushed the salt from much of the delta, 50,000 acres remained unfit for planting and were abandoned.

Case Study – Cyclone Nargis

Cyclone Nargis

Background to the scale of the impact of Cyclone Nargis:

–       Cyclone Nargis was a strong tropical cyclone that caused the worst natural disaster in the recorded history of Burma .

–       It began as an intense tropical depression on April 27th 2008 in the Bay of Bengal.

–       Meteorologists initially thought that the storm would track over Bangladesh

–       However, the storm changed direction and headed towards Burma, where it made land over the Irrawaddy delta in the south of the country on May 2nd.

–       It had intensified into a category 3/4 storm on the Simpson–Saffir scale

–       215 km/hr winds

–       In some places 600mm of rain fell

–       146000 people were killed, or reported missing

–       $10 million damage occurred

–       75% of hospitals and clinics were badly destroyed or damaged

–       Diarrhoea, dysentery and skin infections afflicted the survivors who were crammed into monasteries, schools and other buildings after arriving in towns already under pressure before the cyclone.

Human Factors

–       Burma has a very low level of development

–       Low levels of education

–       39% never enrol in primary education; there has also been a decline in spending in education.

–       Burma’s military government (referred to as a junta) declined international aid for several days, in attempts to try and handle the situation on there own.

–        On May 6th they accepted aid only from specific countries such as India and Bangladesh, yet only for restricted items and it was not until 10 days later that 50 Indian medical workers were accepted.

–       Many other nations and non-governmental organisations (NGOs) hoping to deliver relief were unable to do so.

–       The World Food Programme (WFP) stated that the delays were ‘unprecedented in modern humanitarian relief efforts’.

–       More than two weeks after the storm, relief had only reached 25% of the population.

–       Many Burmese people were displeased with the government as they had not provided an appropriate warning system for the cyclone, despite having been informed by Indian meteorologists 48 hours prior to its arrival.

–       More than two weeks after the storm, relief had only reached 25% of the population

–       It was the Burmese government’s response – or lack of it – that caused widespread disbelief and condemnation around the world.

Physical Factors

–       Burma lies between the Tropic of Cancer and the Equator . It’s in the monsoon region of Asia, with its coastal regions receiving over 5,000 mm (196.9 in) of rain annually.

–       Annual rainfall in the delta region is approximately 2,500 mm (98.4 in), while average annual rainfall in the Dry Zone, which is located in central Burma, is less than 1,000 mm (39.4 in).

–       The Irrawaddy delta in Burma was the worst hit area. The delta contains 7 million of the country’s 53 million people, with nearly 2 million of these living on land that is less than 5m above sea level, ithas a population density of 100/km2, leaving them extremely vulnerable. Some towns lost 90% of their homes, with 70% of their population dead or missing.

–       The agricultural land is very fertile, being regarded as the nation’s ‘rice bowl’, and hence any damage to it would affect the whole country.

–       10,000 people had been killed by the sea surge due to its coastal area.

–       Labutta, a small town in the south west of the delta region was devastated with 50% of houses being destroyed.

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The Responsibility to Protect the Survivors of Natural Disaster: Cyclone Nargis, a Case Study

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Rebecca Barber, The Responsibility to Protect the Survivors of Natural Disaster: Cyclone Nargis, a Case Study, Journal of Conflict and Security Law , Volume 14, Issue 1, Spring 2009, Pages 3–34, https://doi.org/10.1093/jcsl/krn026

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Cyclone Nargis struck Myanmar on 2 and 3 May 2008, devastating the Irrawaddy Delta, affecting 2.4 million people and leaving an estimated 130,000 people dead or missing. In the weeks following the disaster, in the face of enormous humanitarian needs, the government of Myanmar imposed significant restrictions on the delivery of humanitarian aid. The restrictions imposed, and the frustration felt by the international community, led to intense debate regarding the potential application of the ‘responsibility to protect’, and to suggestions that the legal doctrine could be invoked to justify military intervention for the purpose of delivering humanitarian aid to the survivors of the cyclone.

Using Cyclone Nargis as a case study, this article examines the meaning of ‘responsibility to protect’ in the aftermath of natural disaster. The status of humanitarian intervention and the ‘responsibility to protect’ in customary international law is discussed, followed by a consideration of whether the ‘responsibility to protect’ could have been invoked in the aftermath of Cyclone Nargis as a justification for military intervention. This article concludes that while the restrictions imposed by the government of Myanmar fell short of what would be required to justify military intervention, it is possible to envisage situations where, in the aftermath of natural disaster, a government's refusal to allow access to survivors might be so complete, and the humanitarian needs so immense, that the use of force may be warranted.

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• Southeast Asia
• Myanmar - Nature, Environment, Animals

CYCLONE NARGIS

In early May 2008, Burma was struck by Cyclone Nargis, which left over 138,000 dead and tens of thousands injured, and 2.5 million homeless. It was the worst natural disaster ever in Myanmar (Burma). Damage was estimated at over $10 billion, which made it the most damaging cyclone ever recorded in this basin. The Myanmar government estimated the storm completely destroyed 450,000 of 800,000 homes hit. Associated Press called it “Asia's answer to Hurricane Katrina”—except it was much more deadly.

Packing winds upwards of 195 kph (120 mph), Cyclone Nargis became one of Asia's deadliest storms by hitting land at one of the lowest points in Myanmar and setting off a storm surge that reached over 40 kilometers (25 miles) inland. Among the worst areas were Labutta, Bogale, Pyapon, Dedaye and Kyaiklat. More than 400,000 hectares of farmland were flooded with seawater and more than 200,000 drafts animals were killed in the Yangon and Irrawaddy areas. Before the storm hit this area produced 3.3 million tons of crops on 900,000 hectares of land in the monsoon season and 1 million tons of crops on 200,000 hectares in the summer. Initially some said that crops could only be raised on 40 percent of the damaged land and loses could clip two percent off Myanmar’s GDP for 2008 but after the disaster journalists reported that crops were raised in many places thought to be unable to produce crops.

Cyclone Nargis was a rare, eastward-moving, low-latitude, strong tropical cyclone. It made landfall in the evening of May 2, 2008 and lashed Myanmar for three days. It sent a storm surges 40 kilometers up the densely-populated Irrawaddy Delta. Nargis advanced eastward along the coastal delta region, over rivers, other waterways and villages surrounded by paddy fields. The cyclone initially hit the land with wind speeds of up to 194 kph, and later accelerated to a top speed of 238 kph. The name "Nargis" is an Urdu word meaning daffodil.

Two days after the cyclone hit AFP reported: “Nargis tore through Myanmar, razing thousands of buildings and knocking out power lines, state media said. Residents awoke to scenes of devastation after the cyclone bore through swathes of southern Myanmar, uprooting trees, cutting phone lines and water pipes, and clogging streets with debris. Myanmar's state channel MRTV said that 109 people had been killed in Haing Gyi island, just off the coast of southwestern Ayeyawaddy division where the storm first hit. The authorities have declared disaster zones in the regions of Yangon, Ayeyawaddy, Bago, Mon and Karen states. MRTV said that about 20,000 houses have been destroyed on Haing Gyi island, and 92,706 people there were now homeless. In one mainland township in Ayeyawaddy, 75 percent of all homes were believed to be destroyed, the channel said, adding that authorities had launched a rescue operation in the region.[Source: AFP, May 4, 2008]

Nargis made landfall around the mouth of the Ayeyawaddy (Irrawaddy) river, about 220 kilometers (137 miles) southwest of Yangon, before hitting the country's economic hub. The cyclone brought down power and phone lines. The coastal area of Ayeyawaddy appears worst hit by the natural disaster, but Yangon was also battered. Traffic lights, billboards and street lamps littered the roads after being knocked over by strong winds. Trees in the leafy city were uprooted, crushing buildings and cars, while water pipes were also cut, forcing people out onto the streets with buckets to try and buy water from the few shops that remained open. Roofs of houses have been torn away, while only a few taxis and buses — which tripled their fares — braved the debris-clogged streets. Electricity supplies and telecommunications in Yangon have been cut since late Friday night as the storm bore down from the Bay of Bengal, packing winds of 190-240 kilometers (120-150 miles) per hour.

Nargis is the deadliest named cyclone in the North Indian Ocean Basin, as well as the second deadliest named cyclone of all time, behind Typhoon Nina of 1975, in which 229,000 people died after the Banqiao Dam collapsed in China. Including unnamed storms like the 1970 Bhola cyclone, Nargis is the eighth deadliest cyclone of all time, but an uncertainty between the deaths caused by Nargis and those caused by other cyclones (like the 1991 Bangladesh cyclone), could put Nargis as seventh deadliest or higher, because the exact death toll is uncertain. Nargis was the first tropical cyclone to strike the country since Cyclone Mala made landfall in 2006, which was slightly stronger, but had a significantly lower impact. According to reports, Indian authorities had warned Burma about the danger that Cyclone Nargis posed 48 hours before it hit the country's coast. [Source: Wikipedia]

Deadliest Tropical Cyclones Rank (Name/Year, Region, Fatalities): 1) Bhola 1970, Bangladesh 500,000; 2) India 1839, India, 300,000; 3) Haiphong 1881 , Vietnam 300,000; 4) Nina 1975, China 229,000; 5) Nargis 2008 Myanmar 140,000. [Source: NOAA, MDR]

See Separate Articles: DEATH AND DESTRUCTION CAUSED BY CYCLONE NARGIS factsanddetails.com ; CYCLONE NARGIS SURVIVORS AND SURVIVOR STORIES factsanddetails.com ; CYCLONE NARGIS RELIEF EFFORTS AND THE BLOCKING OF FOREIGN AID BY MYANMAR MILITARY REGIME factsanddetails.com ; AFTER CYCLONE NARGIS: ITS LEGACY, REBUILDING AND MORE OBSTRUCTIONS factsanddetails.com

Good Blog: http://cyclonenargis-apprenticeship.blogspot.jp/2008/05/why-cyclone-in-myanmar-was-so-deadly.html

Meteorological History of Cyclone Nargis

The first named storm of the 2008 North Indian Ocean cyclone season, Nargis developed on April 27 in the central area of Bay of Bengal. Initially it tracked slowly in northwest direction. Upon encountering favorable conditions, it quickly strengthened. Dry air briefly weakened the cyclone on April 29 but after that it heading east towards Myanmar and rapidly intensifying. On May 2, it attain peak winds of at least 165 km/h (105 mph). Some sources assessed peak winds of 217 km/h (135 mph), making it a weak Category 4 cyclone. The cyclone moved ashore into the Irrawaddy Delta of Myanmar at full force. It plowed through the delta, passing near Yangon, gradually weakening until dissipating near the border of Burma and Thailand.

Associated Press reported: “Meteorologists say the storm, which gathered strength in the Bay of Bengal and whipped up 120-mph winds, took an unusual track heading eastward into the densely populated delta region where a quarter of the nation's population live. Forecasters began tracking the cyclone April 28 as it first headed toward India. As projected, it took a sharp turn eastward, but didn't follow the typical cyclone track in that area leading to Bangladesh or Myanmar's mountainous northwest. Instead, it swept into the low-lying Irrawaddy delta in central Myanmar. The result was the worst disaster ever in the impoverished country. 'When we saw the (storm) track, I said, 'Uh oh, this is not going to be good,'' said Mark Lander, a meteorology professor at the University of Guam. ''It would create a big storm surge. It was like Katrina going into New Orleans.'' [Source: AP, May 7 and 8, 2008]

It was the first time such an intense storm hit the delta, said Jeff Masters, co-founder and director of meteorology at the San Francisco-based Weather Underground. He called it ''one of those once-in-every-500-years kind of things.'' ''The easterly component of the path is unusual,'' Masters said. ''It tracked right over the most vulnerable part of the country, where most of the people live.''

In the last week of April 2008, an area of deep convection persisted near a low-level circulation in the Bay of Bengal about 1150 kilometers (715 mi) east-southeast of Chennai, India. With good outflow and low wind shear, the system slowly organized as its circulation consolidated. At 0300 UTC on April 27, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) classified the system as a depression, and nine hours later the system intensified into a deep depression. At the same time, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center classified it as Tropical Cyclone 01B. With a ridge to its north, the system tracked slowly north-northwestward as banding features improved. At 0000 UTC, 5:30 AM Indian Standard Time, on April 28, the IMD upgraded the system to Cyclonic Storm Nargis while it was located about 550 kilometers (340 mi) east of Chennai, India. [Source: Wikipedia +]

On April 28 Nargis became nearly stationary while between ridges to its northwest and southeast. That day the JTWC upgraded the storm to cyclone status, the equivalent of a minimal hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Around the same time, the IMD upgraded Nargis to a severe cyclonic storm. The cyclone developed a concentric eye feature, which is an eyewall outside the inner dominant eyewall, with warm waters aiding in further intensification. Early on April 29, the JTWC estimated Nargis reached winds of 160 km/h (100 mph), and at the same time the IMD classified the system as a very severe cyclonic storm. Initially, the cyclone was forecast to strike Bangladesh or southeastern India. Subsequently, the cyclone became disorganized and weakened due to subsidence and drier air; as a result, deep convection near the center markedly decreased. At the same time, the storm began a motion to the northeast around the periphery of a ridge to its southeast. The circulation remained strong despite the diminishing convection, though satellite intensity estimates using the Dvorak technique indicated the cyclone could have weakened to tropical storm status. By late on April 29, convection had begun to rebuild, though immediate restrengthening was prevented by increased wind shear. +

On May 1, 2008, after turning nearly due eastward, Cyclone Nargis began rapidly intensifying, due to greatly improved outflow in association with an approaching upper-level trough. Strengthening continued as it developed a well-defined eye with a diameter of 19 kilometers (12 mi), and early on May 2, 2008 the JTWC estimated the cyclone reached peak winds of 215 km/h (135 mph) as it approached the coast of Burma, making it a Category 4 storm. At the same time, the IMD assessed Nargis as attaining peak winds of 165 km/h (105 mph). Around 1200 UTC on May 2, Cyclone Nargis made landfall in the Ayeyarwady Division of Burma at peak strength. The storm gradually weakened as it proceeded east over Burma, with its proximity to the Andaman Sea preventing rapid weakening. Its track turned to the northeast due to the approach of a mid-latitude trough to its northwest, passing just north of Yangon with winds of 130 km/h (80 mph). Early on May 3 the IMD issued its final advisory on the storm. It quickly weakened after turning to the northeast toward the rugged terrain near the Burma-Thailand border, and after deteriorating to minimal tropical storm status, the JTWC issued its last advisory on Nargis. +

Cyclone Nargis’s Katrina-Like Surge Inundates the Irrawaddy Delta 40 Kilometers Inland

Cyclone Nargis submerged about 783,000 hectares of paddies in 19 townships, or about 63 percent of the area's farmland, damaged crops equivalent to about 80,000 tons of grain, destroying 707,500 tons of stored rice as well as 85 percent of seed stocks. It also killed many draft animals, including 50 percent of the buffaloes, according to the PONREPP (Post-Nargis Recovery and Preparedness Plan, put together by U.N. and Association of Southeast Asian Nations officials working with the Myanmar government). "The storm surge was the major cause of the disaster," said Dieter Schiessl, director of the World Meteorological Organization's disaster risk reduction unit. Most of the dead and missing were in the low-lying Irrawaddy delta, home to 6 million people. Most fatalities were caused by tidal waves.

Jim Andrews, a senior meteorologist at AccuWeather, told Associated Press that satellite photos taken after the storm showed flooding of similar magnitude to that of Hurricane Katrina. He said water covered thousands of square miles in the Irrawaddy Delta, although it was unclear how deep the water was. "It's a similar kind of land to New Orleans ... an intricate network of tidal creeks and openings that allow easy access for a powerful storm surge to penetrate right into populated land," said Andrews. "The impact was maybe the same order of magnitude as Hurricane Katrina.” [Source: AP, May 7, 2008]

Associated Press reported: “The storm made landfall early Saturday at the mouth of the Irrawaddy River, its battering winds pushed a wall of water as high as 12 feet some 25 miles inland, laying waste to villages and killing tens of thousands. Most of the dead were in the delta, where farm families sleeping in flimsy shacks barely above sea level were swept to their deaths. Almost 95 percent of the houses and other buildings in seven townships were destroyed, Myanmar's government says. U.N. officials estimate 1.5 million people were left in severe straits. ''When you look at the satellite picture of before and after the storm the effects look eerily similar to Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in how it inundated low-lying areas,'' said Ken Reeves, director of forecasting for AccuWeather.com. [Source: AP, May 8, 2008 :::]

The Irrawaddy delta ''is huge and the interaction of water and land lying right at sea level allowed the tidal surge to deliver maximum penetration of sea water over land,'' Reeves said. ''Storms like this do most of their killing through floods, with salt water being even more dangerous than fresh water.'' The delta had lost most of its mangrove forests along the coast to shrimp farms and rice paddies over the past decade. That removed what scientists say is one of nature's best defenses against violent storms. :::

''If you look at the path of the (cyclone) that hit Myanmar, it hit exactly where it was going to do the most damage, and it's doing the most damage because much of the protective vegetation was cleared,'' said Jeff NcNeely, chief scientist for the International Union for Conservation of Nature. ''It's an expensive lesson, but it has been one taught repeatedly,'' he said. ''You just wonder why governments don't get on this.'' :::

Lack of Preparation and Warnings Exacerbates the Cyclone Nargis Disaster

Associated Press reported: “Despite assertions by Myanmar's military government that it warned people about the storm, critics contend the junta didn't do enough to alert the delta and failed to organize any evacuations, saying that made the death toll worse. ''Villagers were totally unaware,'' said 38-year-old Khin Khin Myawe, interviewed in the hard-hit delta town of Labutta. ''We knew the cyclone was coming but only because the wind was very strong. No local authorities ever came to us with information about how serious the storm was.'' [Source: AP, May 8, 2008 :::]

“The India Meteorological Department, one of six regional warning centers set up by the World Meteorological Organization, began sending regular storm advisories April 27. The information appeared in Myanmar's state-run newspapers, radio and television 48 hours ahead of the storm. But the international advisories said nothing about a storm surge. And Myanmar, unlike its neighbors Bangladesh and India, has no radar network to help predict the location and height of surges, the WMO said. :::

“There also wasn't any coordinated effort on the part of the junta to move people out of low-lying areas, even though information was available about the expected time and location of landfall. ''How is it possible that there was such a great death toll in the 21st century when we have imagery from satellites in real time and there are specialized meteorology centers in all the regions?'' said Olavo Rasquinho of the U.N. Typhoon Committee Secretariat. :::

“Bangladesh has a storm protection system that includes warning sirens, evacuation routes and sturdy towers to shelter people, measures that were credited with limiting the death toll from last year's Cyclone Sidr to 3,100. Atiq A. Rahman, executive director of the Bangladesh Center for Advanced Studies and a disaster specialist, said Myanmar's death toll would have been lower if it had such a system. ''Taking some action to move people from affected areas would have dramatically helped reduce the numbers of causalities. Absolutely,'' Rahman said. :::

“But junta officials and some weather experts said evacuating a large area with millions of residents would have been nearly impossible, given the poor roads, the distance to some villages and the likely refusal of some families to leave. ''Even if they warned them, they can't go anywhere. Or they are afraid to go anywhere because they are afraid of losing their property,'' said Lander, the University of Guam professor. ''It is debatable how much of a mass exodus you could have had.'' :::

Lack of Radar Hampered Cyclone Nargis Warnings

Eliane Engeler of Associated Press wrote: “The government of Myanmar told the United Nations it warned its population of the devastating cyclone it lacked a radar to predict the high tidal waves that caused most of the fatalities, the U.N. weather agency said. Myanmar's meteorology department started to send out warnings six days before Cyclone Nargis hit the coast, based on information from World Meteorological Organization offices around the world, "The storm surge was the major cause of the disaster," said Dieter Schiessl, director of the World Meteorological Organization's disaster risk reduction unit. The wind speed was correctly forecast, he said. But "the problem was the lack of a radar network to monitor the storm," Schiessl said. [Source: Eliane Engeler, Associated Press, May 8, 2008 ]

Myanmar told the worldwide organization that it had warned the population in newspapers, television and radio broadcasts of the impending storm, he said. Schiessl said his organization was unable to verify how the warning information was used by the authorities and "what really reached individuals." He said the World Meteorological Organization did not know if the Myanmar authorities had the capacity to predict tidal waves. "In a storm surge, the shape of the ocean floor and the shape of the coast has a significant impact on the dimension of a storm surge in a specific geographical location," said Schiessl. "That information can only be generated locally." Tropical cyclones have hit the country on average only once in 40 years, a reason that preparedness may not have been a top priority for Myanmar, he said.

Cyclone Nargis and Global Warming

Associated Press reported: “Some environmentalists suggested global warming may have played a role. Last year, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded that warming oceans could contribute to increasingly severe cyclones with stronger winds and heavier rains. ''While we can never pinpoint one disaster as the result of climate change, there is enough scientific evidence that climate change will lead to intensification of tropical cyclones,'' said Sunita Narain, director of the Indian environmental group Center for Science and Environment. ''Nargis is a sign of things to come,'' she said. ''The victims of these cyclones are climate change victims and their plight should remind the rich world that it is doing too little to contain its greenhouse gas emissions.'' [Source: AP, May 8, 2008 :::]

Weather experts, however, are divided over whether global warming is a factor in catastrophic storms. At a January conference of the American Meteorological Society, some postulated warmer ocean temperatures may actually reduce the strength of cyclones and hurricanes. Masters, at Weather Underground, said Wednesday that in the case of Nargis, the meteorological data in the Indian Ocean region ''is too short and too poor in quality to make judgments about whether tropical cyclones have been affected by global warming.'' :::

Superstitions and Cyclone Nargis

Melinda Liu wrote in Newsweek: “One thing is keeping many Burmese going: the hope that the cyclone might signal the end of Burma’s junta...Burmese widely view Cyclone Nargis a ‘divine intervention.”...Many devout Buddhists trace th catastrophe back to a violent sacrilege committed by the junta”—the killing of monks in other in the September 2007 Saffron Revolution.” Now the monster cyclone, with all its human suffering is bing taken as proof that the junta have lost the “mandate of heaven”—the supernatural right to govern.” [Source: Melinda Liu, Newsweek, May 19, 2008 /:]

“Burma's generals are no less superstitious than their countrymen. They changed the country's name to Myanmar in 1989 on the advice of soothsayers. They decided "Burma" was unlucky...In 2005, the regime heeded astrologer advice and moved the country’s capital—at great expense—from Rangoon to Naypyidaw...The new capital escaped the worst of Nargis’s wrath, making the generals, look either prescient or blessed—if not just plain lucky.” /:\

Image Sources:

Text Sources: New York Times, Washington Post, Los Angeles Times, Times of London, Lonely Planet Guides, The Irrawaddy, Myanmar Travel Information Compton’s Encyclopedia, The Guardian, National Geographic, Smithsonian magazine, The New Yorker, Time, Newsweek, Reuters, AP, AFP, Wall Street Journal, The Atlantic Monthly, The Economist, Global Viewpoint (Christian Science Monitor), Foreign Policy, burmalibrary.org, burmanet.org, Wikipedia, BBC, CNN, NBC News, Fox News and various books and other publications.

Last updated May 2014

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Cyclone Nargis Case Study (Overview (Caused the worst natural disaster in…

• Caused the worst natural disaster in the recorded history of Myanmar
• Struck in May 2008
• Damage comparable to the Asian Tsunami in 2004
• A Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
• Developed from a low pressure system in the Bay of Bengal to a tropical depression in April.
• Peak winds: 217km/h or 135mph
• High winds and the low pressure created a storm surge, measuring 6.3 metres high
• 1.5 million people were severely affected
• 54,000 people missing
• 85,000 confirmed dead
• Inaccurate death toll and missing people count as military leaders left the area shortly after the cyclone hit. If this proves to be the case, it is feared that up to 1 million people might have died in this disaster #
• 75% of buildings in Labutta had collapsed and 20% had their roofs ripped off
• Almost 95 percent of the houses and other buildings in seven townships were destroyed, Myanmar's government says
• The number of deaths in Myanmar may have been under-reported (allegations that government officials stopped updating the death toll to minimize political fallout)
• Myanmar government's decline to international aid and initial restrictions on even the most basic forms of assistance sparked international disapproval
• Local food prices had increased two or threefold (according to a report submitted to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs)
• Damage was estimated at over K62,988,000,000 (US$10 billion), which made it the most damaging cyclone ever recorded in this basin.
• Burst sewage mains caused the landscape to flood with waste, ruining the rice crop
• Local government declined international aid
• Finally, Myanmar granted members of the Association of South-East Asian Nations admittance into the country to deliver aid.
• After negotiations between Ban and the Myanmar head of state, Than Shwe, it was declared on 23 May that other international aid workers would be let into the country - a full 3 weeks after the cyclone struck.
• The Myanmar government did not endorse international aid and placed harsh restrictions on the most basic forms of assistance
• A full week after the cyclone made landfall, the government gave into international pressure to accept outside aid. However, this aid was limited to food, medicine and basic supplies, and foreign aid workers remained banned from the country.

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Cyclone Nargis Case Study

• Weather and climate
• Created by: mazzamarmar
• Created on: 19-04-16 12:35
• Irrawaddy delta, Burma
• 2nd May 2008
• Despite this, the Burmese forecasters reported there was little or no risk
• Indian and Thai weather agencies warned the Burmese Government about the cylone
• There were no emergency evacuation plans
• Half a million survivors are still living in temporary shelters
• Fewer than 20,000 homes have been rebuilt
• Burma is relying on international aid to repair the damage
• 200,000 farm animals were killed
• Over 40% of food stores were destroyed
• Millions of people lost their livelihoods
• There was a total of $4 billion of damage
• 450,000 houses were destroyed
• 2-3 million people were made  homeless
• 1700 schools were destroyed
• More than 140,000 people died
• The salinity (salt content) of soil has increased due to the sea flooding
• This makes it more difficult for plants to grow
• Aid workers were only allowed in 3 weeks after the disaster occurred

Report Sun 26th November, 2017 @ 09:04

excellent resource

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